The StratLab Daily
No. 117 · Wednesday 12 Aug 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Risk jumps to High at 24,435.95
Session return -0.15%; risk High; Transition phase with Stable trend.
What happenedRisk jumped 1 tier to High in one session.
The tensionTransition phase with Stable trend; close 24,435.95.
Net readRisk High; return -0.15%; confidence 35.
Nifty Close
24,435.95
−0.15%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 8 · → stable
FII Idx Fut
−165.2K
63.7th %ile
Walls
24.3–24.5K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Close 24,435.95
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 12 Aug · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The session closed at 24,435.95, down 0.15%.
02 The turn
Risk jumped to High
What this means: A one-tier jump from Elevated to High registered; confidence 35.
03 The catch
Market Health Index (MHI) 48.73
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 12 Aug · percentiles vs 1,260 sessions
What this means: Transition phase, Stable trend, High risk; MHI percentile 26.7; run length 8.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk High
Participation
65.8635
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
55.5
65th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
6 analog matches
Forward 5-day average 2.56%; worst 0.78%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 6 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.13% | +0.03% | 50% | −0.62% |
| Next 5 sessions | +2.56% | +2.26% | 100% | +0.78% |
| Next 10 sessions | +2.75% | +2.62% | 100% | +1.04% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.98% | +0.70% | 50% | −3.02% |
6 analog matches; forward 5-day average 2.56%; worst 0.78%.
Risk High, MHI 48.73 in Transition.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Close 24,435.95
A close at 24,435.95 keeps the session's risk jump in view.
MHI 48.73
Market Health Index (MHI) 48.73 at the 26.7 percentile is the watch.
Risk High
High risk with run length 8 is the break condition.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- 6 analog matches
- Forward 5-day average 2.56%
- Worst 5-day match 0.78%
Lines up bearish
- Risk at High
- MHI percentile 26.7
- Session return -0.15%
Net read: Risk jumped to High, but conditions like today historically favored a 2.56% average 5-day outcome.
Close 24,435.95 at -0.15% with Market Health Index (MHI) 48.73 in Transition; no disagreement between trigger and health.
Regime
BULL