The StratLab Daily
No. 116 · Tuesday 11 Aug 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Risk Drops a Rung to Elevated in a Rare Single-Session Skip
The five-tier scale rarely jumps steps, but a 0.46% dip nudged risk from High to Elevated.
What happenedNifty fell 0.46% to 24471.70.
The tensionMarket Health is Transition with Stable trend, yet risk is Elevated.
Net readRisk dial down collides with a fwd5 analog averaging -0.73%.
Nifty Close
24,471.70
−0.46%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 7 · → stable
Risk
Elevated
confidence 35
FII Idx Fut
−156.1K
70.2th %ile
Walls
24.4–24.5K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The Crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 11 Aug · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A 0.46% dip on the Nifty shows the crowd stepping back.
02 The turn
The Turn
What this means: Risk eased from High to Elevated in a single session, a rare multi-tier skip.
03 The catch
The Catch (Market Health)
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 11 Aug · percentiles vs 1,259 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) at 50.41—28th percentile, Transition phase, day 7.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk Elevated
Participation
57.6305
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
55.7
66th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days Like Today
Elevated risk, stable trend.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 19 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | −0.04% | −0.01% | 47% | −2.64% |
| Next 5 sessions | −0.73% | −0.46% | 50% | −5.61% |
| Next 10 sessions | −1.66% | −1.92% | 22% | −7.78% |
| Next 20 sessions | −1.08% | −1.06% | 50% | −9.19% |
19 analog matches point to a negative bias.
Cautious
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
Nifty closing above resistance needed to shift posture.
Watch
Risk staying Elevated; monitor for further downgrade.
Break
A decisive break of recent lows would deepen caution.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Risk eased 1 tier to Elevated.
- Trend remains Stable.
- MHI > 50.
Lines up bearish
- 19 analogs average -0.73% over next 5 days.
- MHI in 28th percentile.
- Phase Transition for 7 days.
Net read: Cautious with negative bias.
Risk downshift is welcome, but historical analogs flag a potential 0.73% average decline over the next 5 days.
Regime
BULL