No. 113 · Thursday 6 Aug 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Risk gauge takes a rare leap lower, but health check says not so fast
A multi-tier risk drop clashes with a still-transitioning market — 14 historical days echo caution.
What happenedRisk eased 1 tier to Elevated.
The tensionConfidence in the move is modest at 35; the Market Health Index (MHI) stays in Transition for a fourth session.
Net readThe net stance is cautious but short-term defensive.
Nifty Close
24,636.00
+0.05%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 4 · → stable
MHI
55.58
35th %ile
Risk
Elevated
confidence 35
FII Idx Fut
−145.1K
79.2th %ile
Walls
24.6–24.7K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Flat as paint
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 6 Aug · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The Nifty closed at 24,636, up just 0.05%, with breadth unchanged.
02 The turn
The rare skip
What this means: The risk gauge jumped from High to Elevated in a single session — a multi-tier drop that happens infrequently.
03 The catch
Health lagging behind
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 6 Aug · percentiles vs 1,256 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) reads 55.58, in the 34.7th percentile. Trend is stable, but risk remains Elevated amid a Transition phase now on day 4.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk Elevated
Participation
62.4498
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
61.8
77th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Faded echoes
Transition terrain with Elevated risk keeps conviction light.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 14 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.14%
+0.23%
50%
−1.00%
Next 5 sessions
−0.27%
−0.04%
50%
−3.43%
Next 10 sessions
+0.14%
−0.51%
50%
−5.03%
Next 20 sessions
+1.14%
+0.77%
64%
−5.33%
Conditions like today historically favored a negative drift: average -0.27%, worst -3.43% over 5 days.
Selective exposure, tilting defensive.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Nifty braces 24,636
Holding Friday's close would confirm the risk reprieve and mute the analog signal.
MHI tests 55.58
A dip below the latest MHI reading can signal the health gauge weakening further.
Nifty loses 24,636
A break under Friday's close opens the door to the analog path, with losses up to -3.43%.