No. 112 · Wednesday 5 Aug 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Foreign money turned: cash selling.
FII cash flipped from +₹2,446 Cr to –₹943 Cr; DII bought +₹2,883 Cr. Market health holds in Transition at high risk, but condition analogs lean positive.
What happenedFII cash turned negative.
The tensionFutures selling hit 70th percentile, despite DII bid.
Net readTransition phase with a positive analog but high risk.
Nifty Close
24,624.65
+0.04%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 3 · → stable
MHI
57.93
38th %ile
Risk
High
confidence 35
FII Idx Fut
−158.9K
69.8th %ile
Walls
24.5–24.7K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The crowd watched foreign money reverse.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 5 Aug · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: FII cash slipped to –₹943 Cr after a +₹2,446 Cr inflow. DII absorbed with +₹2,883 Cr. FII index futures net sold 158,903 contracts — the 70th percentile of the year.
02 The turn
The turn was abrupt and deep.
What this means: Same‑day cash flow swung by roughly ₹3,400 Cr while futures selling landed in the top third of 2026’s intensity.
03 The catch
Market health held Transition despite the flow shock.
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 5 Aug · percentiles vs 1,255 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) read 57.93 — 38.4th percentile — with a Stable trend, High risk flag, and confidence of just 35.0%.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk High
Participation
55.6225
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
65.3
81th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days like today offered a wide spread.
Transition, high risk, low confidence — the ground is uneven.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 8 · tier: phase_trend_risk
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.13%
+0.03%
50%
−0.62%
Next 5 sessions
+1.95%
+2.26%
88%
−3.58%
Next 10 sessions
+1.70%
+2.62%
88%
−8.18%
Next 20 sessions
+2.17%
+0.93%
62%
−3.02%
The 35% confidence mark means the Phase signal is tentative.
Proceed with hedges.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market tracks the analog average gain of 1.95%
with MHI crossing back above its 38.4th percentile and FII cash returning to buying.
MHI softens below its current 57.93
and FII cash selling deepens, pulling futures selling beyond the 70th percentile.
The market repeats the worst analog drawdown of –3.58%
triggering a move out of Transition toward a Decline phase.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
DII buying at +₹2,883 Cr partly cushioned the FII outflow.
Analog average of 1.95% suggests a positive five‑day tilt.
MHI at 57.93 remains above the lower quartile, inside Transition.
Lines up bearish
FII futures selling at the 70th percentile signals deep institutional caution.
Market health risk is High with confidence only 35%.
The worst analog case saw –3.58%, a sharp five‑day drop.
Net read: Cautious but leaning with the analog until MHI gives way.
Foreign cash flipped to selling and futures aggression hit the 70th percentile, yet the condition analog points to a 1.95% average upside, leaving the market in a fragile Transition.