The StratLab Daily
No. 87 · Monday 29 Jun 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Foreign money turned: cash selling.
NIFTY −0.46% to 23,946. FII positioning is the marginal flow this market trades on; a same-day turn in cash and futures direction is mechanical fuel.
What happenedNIFTY −0.46% to 23,946. Foreign money turned: cash selling.
The tensionMarket Health is Transition at Elevated risk, 33rd percentile.
Net readA tactical move inside a fragile backdrop.
Nifty Close
23,946.25
−0.46%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 2 · → stable
Risk
Elevated
confidence 25
FII Idx Fut
−223.8K
16.4th %ile
Walls
23.9–24.0K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Foreign money turned: cash selling.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 29 Jun · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: FII positioning is the marginal flow this market trades on; a same-day turn in cash and futures direction is mechanical fuel.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: FII cash −₹1,350 Cr after +₹1,317 Cr (settled) · DII +₹2,321 Cr · FII net index futures -223,809 (16th pctile of the year)
03 The catch
Market Health reads Transition
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 29 Jun · percentiles vs 1,228 sessions
What this means: the index moved; Market Health's 33rd-percentile read says the internals haven't confirmed it yet.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk Elevated
Participation
75.1503
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
65.3
81th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
17 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — transition, Elevated risk — 17 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 17 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | −0.03% | −0.01% | 47% | −2.64% |
| Next 5 sessions | −0.89% | −1.01% | 47% | −5.61% |
| Next 10 sessions | −1.82% | −2.13% | 18% | −7.78% |
| Next 20 sessions | −1.16% | −2.24% | 47% | −9.19% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored caution, with exposure kept tight.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Transition runs a median of 1 session(s) (max 9) — this is session 2. 52% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
MHI at 53.6 — a close back above 50 would end the 33rd-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
21.4% of Transition exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−5.61%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Foreign money turned: cash selling.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 33rd percentile · Elevated risk
- Conditions analog: −0.89% avg next 5 · 47% win
Net read: A tactical move inside a fragile backdrop.
Foreign money turned: cash selling. A tactical move inside a fragile backdrop.
Regime
BULL