No. 86 · Thursday 25 Jun 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Moves to Transition as Breadth Index Dips to 60.0
The StratLab Breadth Index fell from 60.9 to 60.0, shifting the phase to Transition with elevated risk and 35.0 confidence.
What happenedNifty closed at 24,056, up 0.14%.
The tensionMarket Health moved from Healthy Uptrend to Transition, with the Breadth Index falling from 60.9 to 60.0.
Net readHistorical analogs suggest a slight negative bias, averaging a -0.36% forward 5-day return.
Nifty Close
24,056.00
+0.14%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 1 · → stable
MHI
59.98
40th %ile
Risk
Elevated
confidence 35
FII Idx Fut
−223.8K
16.2th %ile
Walls
24.0–24.2K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The Crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 25 Jun · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Nifty inched up 0.14% to 24,056 while the StratLab Breadth Index slipped to 60.0.
02 The turn
The Turn
What this means: Market Health transitioned from Healthy Uptrend to Transition today, with the Breadth Index dropping from 60.9 to 60.0.
03 The catch
The Catch (Market Health)
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 25 Jun · percentiles vs 1,227 sessions
What this means: Phase is Transition, Trend is Stable, Risk is Elevated. Breadth Index at 60.0, in the 40.2 percentile.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk Elevated
Participation
60.3206
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
65.3
81th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days Like Today
In 13 similar past instances, the Nifty averaged a -0.36% return over the next 5 days, with a worst drawdown of -3.43%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 13 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.19%
+0.49%
54%
−1.00%
Next 5 sessions
−0.36%
−0.69%
46%
−3.43%
Next 10 sessions
+0.10%
−1.21%
46%
−5.03%
Next 20 sessions
+1.32%
+0.78%
69%
−5.33%
Sample size of 13 matches is limited; the average loss of -0.36% is modest, but the -3.43% tail risk warrants attention.
Conditions like today historically favored a -0.36% average 5-day tilt, suggesting mild near-term headwinds.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Breadth Reclaims 60.9
A return of the StratLab Breadth Index to 60.9 would negate the transition and restore the uptrend.
Analog Average Plays Out
Nifty decline aligns with the -0.36% average analog loss from the 24,056 close, keeping the Transition intact.
Tail Risk Engages
A selloff exceeding the -3.43% worst analog loss would signal a deeper breakdown beyond a normal pullback.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Nifty closed up 0.14% despite the health shift.
Market Health trend remains Stable, not Bearish.
Breadth Index at 60.0 holds only slightly below the 60.9 prior level.
Lines up bearish
Market Health entered Transition with elevated risk.
Historical analogs show an average 5-day loss of -0.36%.
Worst-case analog loss of -3.43% indicates significant tail risk.
Net read: The transition and negative analog tilt argue for near-term caution, while the Stable trend and modest average loss suggest a measured pullback rather than a steep selloff.
With the Breadth Index dipping to 60.0 and models pointing to a -0.36% average follow-through, the 0.14% recovery lacks conviction; a decisive move back above 60.9 is needed to reassert the prior Healthy Uptrend.