The StratLab Daily
No. 55 · Tuesday 12 May 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health just moved from Weak Downtrend to Bear Market.
NIFTY −1.83% to 23,380. A phase transition means the health engine's six-state read of market conditions changed today, not just the index price.
What happenedNIFTY −1.83% to 23,380. Market Health just moved from Weak Downtrend to Bear Market.
The tensionMarket Health is Bear Market at Very High risk, 0th percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
23,379.55
−1.83%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 1 · ↓ weakening
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−237.1K
5.2th %ile
Walls
23.4–23.4K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Market Health just moved from Weak Downtrend to Bear Market.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 12 May · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A phase transition means the health engine's six-state read of market conditions changed today, not just the index price.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: Weak Downtrend → Bear Market · MHI 49.4 → 5.7
03 The catch
Market Health reads Bear Market
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 12 May · percentiles vs 1,196 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
60.8434
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
36.3
30th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
107 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — bear market, Very High risk — 107 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 107 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.14% | +0.13% | 53% | −3.24% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.39% | +0.24% | 54% | −4.86% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.47% | +0.30% | 52% | −7.37% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.13% | +0.68% | 61% | −8.66% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Bear Market runs a median of 2 session(s) (max 16) — this is session 1. 17% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
MHI at 5.7 — a close back above 50 would end the 0th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
0.0% of Bear Market exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−4.86%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Market Health just moved from Weak Downtrend to Bear Market.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 0th percentile · Very High risk
- Conditions analog: +0.39% avg next 5 · 54% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Market Health just moved from Weak Downtrend to Bear Market. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
BEAR