The StratLab Daily
No. 54 · Monday 11 May 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Risk jumped 2 tiers to High.
NIFTY −1.49% to 23,816. A multi-tier risk move in one session is rare — the engine's five-tier scale rarely skips a step.
What happenedNIFTY −1.49% to 23,816. Risk jumped 2 tiers to High.
The tensionMarket Health is Weak Downtrend at High risk, 26th percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
23,815.85
−1.49%
Market Phase
🟠 Weak Dntrend
session 1 · ↓ weakening
FII Idx Fut
−221.0K
8.1th %ile
Walls
23.8–23.9K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Risk jumped 2 tiers to High.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 11 May · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A multi-tier risk move in one session is rare — the engine's five-tier scale rarely skips a step.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: Moderate → High · confidence 10
03 The catch
Market Health reads Weak Downtrend
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 11 May · percentiles vs 1,195 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Phase
🟠 Weak Downtrend
risk High
Participation
53.2129
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
60.3
65th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
35 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — weak downtrend, High risk — 35 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 35 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | −0.14% | −0.01% | 46% | −2.18% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.03% | +0.09% | 57% | −4.57% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.36% | +0.68% | 63% | −7.03% |
| Next 20 sessions | −0.40% | +0.17% | 54% | −9.93% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Weak Downtrend runs a median of 1 session(s) (max 6) — this is session 1. 60% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
MHI at 49.4 — a close back above 50 would end the 26th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
22.1% of Weak Downtrend exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−4.57%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Risk jumped 2 tiers to High.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 26th percentile · High risk
- Conditions analog: +0.03% avg next 5 · 57% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Risk jumped 2 tiers to High. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
BEAR