No. 27 · Friday 27 Mar 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Bear Market Phase Begins — MHI Drops to 33.5 as Nifty Falls 2.09%
Market Health shifted from Transition to Bear; confidence 25.0, risk Very High.
What happenedMarket Health transitioned from Transition to Bear Market.
The tensionDespite the drop, similar historical conditions favored a 5-day average return of 1.85%.
Net readNet bearish with high risk, but historical bounce odds temper extreme fear.
Nifty Close
22,819.60
−2.09%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 1 · → stable
MHI
33.50
10th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 25
FII Idx Fut
−279.5K
0.4th %ile
Walls
22.8–23.0K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 The Crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 27 Mar · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Nifty fell 2.09% to 22,819.6, triggering a Market Health phase shift to Bear.
02 The turn
02 The Turn
What this means: MHI plunged from 40.9 to 33.5, crossing the threshold into Bear Market.
03 The catch
03 The Catch
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 27 Mar · percentiles vs 1,170 sessions
What this means: MHI 33.5 (9.7th percentile), confidence 25.0, risk Very High — trend still Stable.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
76.7068
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
19.6
8th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 Days Like Today
Conditions like today historically favored a 5-day average return of 1.85% (worst -0.29%) across 5 similar matches.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 5 · tier: phase_trend_risk
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.17%
+0.57%
60%
−2.35%
Next 5 sessions
+1.85%
+2.28%
80%
−0.29%
Next 10 sessions
+3.26%
+2.21%
100%
+1.46%
Next 20 sessions
+0.68%
−0.78%
20%
−3.82%
Bear phase new (run length 1); historical analogs lean positive short-term, but confidence is low.
DEFENSIVE
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
MHI staying below 33.5 and phase run length extending past 1 solidifies bear.
Watch
A rally matching the 1.85% analog average would test bear conviction.
Break
A reclaim of MHI above 40.9 would flip back to Transition phase.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Historical 5-day avg forward return +1.85%
MHI at 9.7th percentile — deeply oversold
Confidence low at 25.0 (possible false phase signal)
Lines up bearish
Phase shift to Bear Market confirmed today
MHI dropped to 33.5, risk level Very High
Price down 2.09% in a single session
Net read: Fresh Bear phase with MHI 33.5; oversold extremes favor a tactical bounce, but risk Very High limits upside conviction.
Market Health moved to Bear Market today with MHI at 33.5 and confidence at 25.0. Historical analogs suggest a 1.85% average bounce over 5 days, but the stable trend and very high risk keep stance defensive.