No. 26 · Wednesday 25 Mar 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Moves from Bear Market to Transition
StratLab Breadth Index leaped from 28.5 to 40.9, triggering the shift on a 1.72% up day.
What happenedBear Market → Transition
The tensionHigh Risk, 60% Confidence
Net readNet: Improving but fragile
Nifty Close
23,306.45
+1.72%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 1 · ↑ improving
MHI
40.93
17th %ile
Risk
High
confidence 60
FII Idx Fut
−238.1K
2.4th %ile
Walls
—
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 the crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 25 Mar · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Nifty surged 1.72% to 23,306.45.
02 The turn
02 the turn
What this means: Market health shifted from Bear Market to Transition as the StratLab Breadth Index rose from 28.5 to 40.9.
03 The catch
03 the catch
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 25 Mar · percentiles vs 1,169 sessions
What this means: StratLab Breadth Index at 40.93 (17.2nd percentile). Phase Transition, Improving trend, but High risk. Confidence is 60%.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk High
Participation
56.0241
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
28.8
17th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 days like today
Post-Bear Transition terrain.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 6 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.37%
+0.65%
67%
−1.53%
Next 5 sessions
+0.56%
+1.26%
83%
−6.11%
Next 10 sessions
+1.10%
+1.71%
50%
−6.12%
Next 20 sessions
+1.24%
−0.93%
33%
−3.03%
Only 6 historical matches found; the analog set is limited.
Transition
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
StratLab Breadth Index holds above 28.5 for more than 1 day.
Watch
A close below 23,306.45 would be an early caution signal.
Break
StratLab Breadth Index falling back below 28.5 would break the transition thesis.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Analog forward 5-day average is positive at 0.56%.
StratLab Breadth Index at 40.93 (17.2nd percentile) often marks a base from which rebounds begin.
Phase transition from Bear Market reflects an improving internal trend.
Lines up bearish
Forward worst-case analog drop was -6.11%, showing severe downside risk persists.
Risk remains High and confidence is only 60%.
Only 6 historical matches limit the analog's reliability.
Net read: Net: Cautiously improving; the transition is nascent and fragile.
The StratLab Breadth Index's surge to 40.93 flipped the phase to Transition, but with high risk and limited precedent, the move needs confirmation. A fall back below 28.5 would be a sharp reversal.