The StratLab Daily
No. 8 · Thursday 26 Feb 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Foreign Money Turns: FII Cash −₹2,487 Cr After +₹1,075 Cr Inflow
Nifty closes flat at 25,496.55; StratLab Breadth Index holds 75.06, Strong Bull phase.
What happenedFII cash turned negative to −₹2,487 Cr after yesterday's +₹1,075 Cr; Nifty closed +0.06%.
The tensionMarket Health remains Strong Bull (MHI 75.06) while foreign flow pivots to selling.
Net readBreadth strength and historical analogs suggest the FII turn is not yet a trend reversal.
Nifty Close
25,496.55
+0.06%
Market Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
session 2 · ↑ improving
FII Idx Fut
−103.0K
69.6th %ile
Walls
25.4–25.5K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 The Crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 26 Feb · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Nifty ended flat at 25,496.55 (+0.06%) as DIIs bought +₹2,876 Cr, absorbing the FII selling.
02 The turn
02 The Turn
What this means: FII cash swung to −₹2,487 Cr from +₹1,075 Cr; index futures net short at -102,980 (70th pctile).
03 The catch
03 Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 26 Feb · percentiles vs 1,151 sessions
What this means: StratLab Breadth Index at 75.06 (59.9th pctile) — Strong Bull, Improving, Low Risk, 100% confidence.
Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
risk Low
Participation
53.3199
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
53.6
53th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 Days Like Today
Conditions like today historically favored a forward 5-day average return of +0.41%, with a worst case of -6.33% (254 matches).
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 254 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.09% | +0.10% | 58% | −5.93% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.41% | +0.67% | 62% | −6.33% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.69% | +0.77% | 63% | −6.05% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.26% | +1.44% | 68% | −9.35% |
Strong Bull phase (100% confidence) entering 2nd day; breadth improving.
Conditions like today historically favored positive 5-day returns (+0.41% avg).
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
StratLab Breadth Index holding above 75.06 would confirm the Strong Bull phase.
Watch
A drop below today's close 25,496.55 with continued FII selling would merit attention.
Break
A 5-day decline exceeding -6.33% (historical worst) would break the analog.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- StratLab Breadth Index at 75.06 in Strong Bull phase.
- DIIs absorbed selling with +₹2,876 Cr.
- Historical analog: average +0.41% over next 5 days.
Lines up bearish
- FII cash turned negative −₹2,487 Cr.
- FII index futures short at 70th percentile of year.
- Analog worst-case drawdown -6.33%.
Net read: Bullish-leaning: breadth strength outweighs single-day FII outflow; favorable historical odds.
Despite FII cash selling −₹2,487 Cr, the StratLab Breadth Index at 75.06 and improving trend argue that the Strong Bull phase remains intact.
Regime
BULL