No. 7 · Wednesday 25 Feb 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Risk Drops Two Tiers to Low
A rare multi-tier easing hit with 100% confidence while market health enters a new Strong Bull phase.
What happenedRisk dropped from Elevated to Low in one session—a skip-step move.
The tensionConfidence is 100% but the Strong Bull phase is just 1 day old; breadth percentile sits at 55.3.
Net readHistorically, such conditions have yielded a 0.41% average 5‑day gain across 253 matches, with a worst case of -6.33%.
Nifty Close
25,482.50
+0.23%
Market Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
session 1 · ↑ improving
MHI
72.33
55th %ile
Risk
Low
confidence 100
FII Idx Fut
−104.5K
68.4th %ile
Walls
—
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
One-Day Risk Collapse
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 25 Feb · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Risk slid two full tiers in one session, an event that rarely skips a step in the engine's scale.
02 The turn
A Rare Sudden Shift
What this means: The move resets risk to Low swiftly, signaling a potential regime change.
03 The catch
Strong Bull, Improving
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 25 Feb · percentiles vs 1,150 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index reads 72.33 (55.3rd percentile), low risk, but the phase is only 1 day old.
Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
risk Low
Participation
58.5513
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
55.4
57th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
253 Historical Matches
Forward 5-day average return of 0.41%, with a worst-case drawdown of -6.33%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 253 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.09%
+0.10%
58%
−5.93%
Next 5 sessions
+0.41%
+0.67%
62%
−6.33%
Next 10 sessions
+0.69%
+0.77%
63%
−6.05%
Next 20 sessions
+1.26%
+1.44%
68%
−9.35%
The risk drop is decisive, but the phase run is minimal and the StratLab Breadth Index percentile is moderate.
Risk reset favorably, but the new phase needs confirmation; wait for breadth expansion.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
MHI stays above 72.33 and risk holds at Low for multiple sessions.
Watch
StratLab Breadth Index fails to improve or MHI breaks below its 55.3rd percentile.
Break
A 5-day drawdown exceeding -6.33% or risk returns to Elevated.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Risk collapsed to Low with 100% confidence
Improving trend and Strong Bull phase
Historical analog average return +0.41%
Lines up bearish
Phase run only 1 day—unproven
Worst-case analog drawdown -6.33%
Breadth percentile moderate at 55.3
Net read: Net bullish but youth of the phase demands caution; conditions like today historically favor upside with non-trivial tail risk.
A rare two-tier risk drop to Low sets a positive backdrop, but the new Strong Bull phase needs time to mature; historical parallels show a 0.41% average 5-day gain yet with a -6.33% worst-case, keeping exposure measured.