No. 37 · Week ending Friday 13 Nov 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Index (MHI) Shifts to Healthy Uptrend as Nifty Advances
Nifty gained 0.4% to 25144.3 while market health internal metrics stepped down from Strong Bull.
What happenedNifty closed up 0.4% at 25144.3.
The tensionSurface price gains contrast with the Market Health Index (MHI) easing from 83.2 to 79.3.
Net readConditions like today historically favored measured exposure over aggressive risk expansion.
Nifty Close
25,144.30
+0.40%
Market Phase
🟢 Healthy Uptrend
1 sessions · → stable
MHI
79.34
69th %ile
Risk
Moderate
confidence 65
FII Idx Fut
−55.9K
week-end
Walls
25.0–25.2K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Surface Momentum Holds
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 13 Nov · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The benchmark index closed up 0.4% at 25144.3. Price action remains resilient on the surface.
02 The turn
Phase Transition Underway
What this means: Market Health shifted from Strong Bull to Healthy Uptrend on day 1 of the new phase. The system state changed despite positive index returns.
03 The catch
Market Health Index (MHI) Read
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 13 Nov · percentiles vs 1,322 sessions
What this means: The Market Health Index (MHI) stands at 79.34, representing the 69.1th percentile. System confidence sits at 65.0% under Moderate risk.
Adv / Decl days
3 / 1
of the week
Week range
25,045–25,299
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
75.8 to 81.2
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
Historical Analog Profile
Across 65 historical matches in this condition state, 5-day forward returns averaged -0.11% with a worst drawdown of -5.77%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 65 · tier: phase_risk · today's exact signature has no prior occurrence
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.07%
+0.10%
57%
−1.64%
Next 5 sessions
−0.11%
−0.09%
48%
−5.77%
Next 10 sessions
−0.16%
−0.07%
47%
−7.62%
Next 20 sessions
+0.16%
+0.19%
53%
−11.96%
Historical analogs reflect mild forward return softness across the 5-day horizon.
Conditions like today historically favored disciplined risk management over momentum chasing.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Health Re-expansion
A move in the Market Health Index (MHI) back toward Strong Bull territory.
Phase Endurance
Stabilization within Healthy Uptrend past run length 1.
Internal Softness
A decline below the current 69.1th percentile MHI level.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Nifty advanced 0.4% to close at 25144.3.
Market Health remains solidly positioned in a Healthy Uptrend.
Lines up bearish
MHI dropped from 83.2 to 79.3 in today's transition.
5-day forward average returns across 65 analog matches stand at -0.11%.
Net read: Internal health has cooled from Strong Bull to Healthy Uptrend even as benchmark prices advanced.
With the Market Health Index (MHI) stepping down to 79.34, conditions like today historically favored prudent positioning over aggressive expansion.