The StratLab Weekly
No. 34 · Week ending Friday 23 Oct 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market health sits in the bottom decile of its own history.
NIFTY −1.26% to 22,600. Market Health Index (MHI) deciles this extreme are rare enough that they usually resolve, not persist.
What happenedNIFTY −1.26% to 22,600. Market health sits in the bottom decile of its own history.
The tensionMarket Health is Bear Market at Very High risk, 2nd percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
22,600.00
−1.26%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
20 sessions · ↓ weakening
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−280.2K
week-end
Walls
22.5–22.7K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Market health sits in the bottom decile of its own history.
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 23 Oct · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) deciles this extreme are rare enough that they usually resolve, not persist.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: MHI 13.43 — 2th percentile
03 The catch
Market Health reads Bear Market
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 23 Oct · percentiles vs 1,308 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Adv / Decl days
0 / 4
of the week
Week range
22,600–22,889
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
25.2 to 11.1
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
141 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — bear market, Very High risk — 141 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 141 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.14% | +0.13% | 55% | −3.24% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.36% | +0.24% | 52% | −4.86% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.42% | +0.21% | 51% | −7.37% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.87% | +0.70% | 60% | −8.66% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Bear Market runs a median of 2 session(s) (max 20) — this is session 20. 18% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
Market Health Index (MHI) at 13.4 — a close back above 50 would end the 2nd-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
0.0% of Bear Market exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−4.86%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Market health sits in the bottom decile of its own history.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 2nd percentile · Very High risk
- Conditions analog: +0.36% avg next 5 · 52% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Market health sits in the bottom decile of its own history. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
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