The StratLab Weekly
No. 11 · Week ending Thursday 30 Apr 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Risk jumped 2 tiers to Elevated.
NIFTY −0.39% to 23,998. A multi-tier risk move in one session is rare — the engine's five-tier scale rarely skips a step.
What happenedNIFTY −0.39% to 23,998. Risk jumped 2 tiers to Elevated.
The tensionMarket Health is Healthy Uptrend at Elevated risk, 44th percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
23,997.55
−0.39%
Market Phase
🟢 Healthy Uptrend
1 sessions · → stable
Risk
Elevated
confidence 55
FII Idx Fut
−184.5K
week-end
Walls
23.9–24.0K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Risk jumped 2 tiers to Elevated.
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 30 Apr · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A multi-tier risk move in one session is rare — the engine's five-tier scale rarely skips a step.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: Low → Elevated · confidence 55
03 The catch
Market Health reads Healthy Uptrend
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 30 Apr · percentiles vs 1,189 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Adv / Decl days
2 / 2
of the week
Week range
23,996–24,178
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
87.6 to 72.8
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
20 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — healthy uptrend, Elevated risk — 20 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 20 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | −0.06% | +0.16% | 60% | −1.53% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.21% | +0.14% | 55% | −3.71% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.10% | −0.05% | 47% | −6.13% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.23% | +1.76% | 74% | −8.33% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Healthy Uptrend runs a median of 1 session(s) (max 7) — this is session 1. 53% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
MHI at 63.1 — a close back above 50 would end the 44th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
0.0% of Healthy Uptrend exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−3.71%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Risk jumped 2 tiers to Elevated.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 44th percentile · Elevated risk
- Conditions analog: +0.21% avg next 5 · 55% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Risk jumped 2 tiers to Elevated. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
—