No. 5 · Week ending Friday 20 Mar 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
NIFTY fell 1.26% as the StratLab Breadth Index rose from 11.0 to 18.2—price and participation moved in opposite directions.
A falling index alongside an improving StratLab Breadth Index in a Bear Market is a fragile signal; conditions like today historically offered a 0.09% average 5-day forward return but a worst case of -4.77%.
What happenedThe index closed at 23,114.5, down 1.26%, while the StratLab Breadth Index improved to 18.2 from 11.0.
The tensionBear Market phase persists at an MHI of 27.85 (6.2nd percentile) with risk Very High, even as participation widened.
Net readThe divergence keeps the outlook tentative, blending rare breadth strength with deep bearish structure.
Nifty Close
23,114.50
−1.26%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
14 sessions · ↑ recovering
MHI
27.85
6th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 35
FII Idx Fut
−234.5K
week-end
Walls
—
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 The Crowd
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 20 Mar · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The crowd drove the NIFTY down 1.26% to close at 23,114.5.
02 The turn
02 The Turn
What this means: The turn appeared in participation: the StratLab Breadth Index climbed from 11.0 to 18.2, refusing to confirm the price decline.
03 The catch
03 The Catch
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 20 Mar · percentiles vs 1,166 sessions
What this means: Market Health remains Bear Market (MHI 27.85, 6.2nd percentile, confidence 35.0, risk Very High), now in its 14th week.
Adv / Decl days
3 / 2
of the week
Week range
23,002–23,778
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
11.0 to 18.2
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
04 Days Like Today
Conditions like today historically favored an average 5-day forward return of 0.09% (57 matches, worst case -4.77%).
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 57 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
−0.22%
−0.16%
33%
−4.78%
Next 5 sessions
+0.09%
+0.08%
53%
−4.77%
Next 10 sessions
+0.41%
+0.68%
57%
−7.12%
Next 20 sessions
+1.33%
+0.68%
62%
−3.24%
Diverging breadth during a Bear Market retreat often resolves with limited upside and sharp downside risks.
Conditions like today favor a guarded posture—historically, forward returns are marginally positive but fragile.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
NIFTY reclaims 23,114.5 with StratLab Breadth Index sustaining above 18.2.
Watch
NIFTY holds above 23,114.5 but StratLab Breadth Index slips back toward 11.0.
StratLab Breadth Index rose from 11.0 to 18.2, signaling internal strength.
Historical analogs show a 0.09% average 5-day forward return.
Bear Market is in a 'Recovering' trend, suggesting a possible transition.
Lines up bearish
NIFTY fell 1.26% and remains in a Bear Market phase.
MHI is very low at 27.85 (6.2nd percentile) with Very High risk.
Worst-case historical 5-day return is -4.77%, underscoring downside risk.
Net read: Divergence between price and breadth introduces cautious tension, with historical analogs leaning slightly positive but not enough to offset bearish structure.
Breadth improvement offers a fragile positive signal, but the Bear Market context and low MHI at 27.85 keep risk Very High; the recovery needs to hold the 23,114.5 level and see the StratLab Breadth Index stay above 18.2.