No. 1 · Week ending Friday 20 Feb 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health transitions to Healthy Uptrend as StratLab Breadth Index climbs from 52.1 to 61.7
A phase change signal, not just a price move, emerges as the index falls 0.43% to 25571.25 but internal breadth improves decisively.
What happenedPhase upgrade to Healthy Uptrend.
The tensionThe 0.43% daily drop creates tension with the improving breadth signal.
Net readNet stance turns constructive, with MHI at 61.7 and a 0.08% average analog forward return.
Nifty Close
25,571.25
−0.43%
Market Phase
🟢 Healthy Uptrend
1 sessions · ↑ improving
MHI
61.73
40th %ile
Risk
Moderate
confidence 70
FII Idx Fut
−133.7K
week-end
Walls
25.5–25.7K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The Crowd
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 20 Feb · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The Nifty fell 0.43% to 25571.25, with the crowd seemingly selling into the phase shift.
02 The turn
The Turn
What this means: Market Health flipped from Transition to Healthy Uptrend; the StratLab Breadth Index jumped from 52.1 to 61.7.
03 The catch
Market Health
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 20 Feb · percentiles vs 1,147 sessions
What this means: Phase is Healthy Uptrend, trend improving, risk moderate. MHI at 61.7 (40.4 percentile), confidence 70%.
Adv / Decl days
4 / 1
of the week
Week range
25,454–25,819
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
59.2 to 52.8
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
Days Like Today
In 44 analogous setups, the forward 5‑day return averaged 0.08%, with a worst case of -5.77%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 44 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.06%
+0.08%
54%
−1.50%
Next 5 sessions
+0.08%
+0.50%
57%
−5.77%
Next 10 sessions
+0.13%
+0.36%
54%
−7.62%
Next 20 sessions
+0.81%
+0.28%
56%
−5.19%
The shift to Healthy Uptrend, with MHI at 61.7, has historically preceded a 0.08% average 5‑day gain, though the worst case was -5.77%.
Constructive
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirmation
5‑day forward return tracking above the 0.08% average.
Watch
StratLab Breadth Index falls back below 52.1, reversing the upgrade.
Break
Index breaches the worst‑case analog loss of -5.77% from current levels.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
StratLab Breadth Index surged from 52.1 to 61.7, triggering a phase upgrade.
44 similar historical environments saw an average 5‑day forward return of 0.08%.
Market Health confidence in the new phase stands at 70%.
Lines up bearish
Today's 0.43% decline counters the internal breadth improvement.
The breadth index, at the 40.4 percentile, suggests the uptrend is not yet deeply rooted.
Worst-case analog saw a 5.77% plunge, reminding that risks persist.
Net read: Phase upgrade and positive analog lean bullish, but the 0.43% daily dip and 40.4 percentile keep the risk profile moderate.
The transition to Healthy Uptrend, with the StratLab Breadth Index at 61.7, tilts odds in favor of bulls. However, the shallow 40.4 percentile and the -5.77% worst case call for measured positioning.