The StratLab Daily
No. 154 · Wednesday 7 Oct 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
9 names ran together on volume — the day's coordinated move.
NIFTY −0.76% to 22,603. Same-day clusters on elevated volume mark where positioning is actually changing, regardless of what the index did.
What happenedNIFTY −0.76% to 22,603. 9 names ran together on volume — the day's coordinated move.
The tensionMarket Health is Bear Market at Very High risk, 13th percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
22,603.05
−0.76%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 9 · ↑ improving
Risk
Very High
confidence 70
FII Idx Fut
−298.3K
3.3th %ile
Walls
22.6–22.7K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
9 names ran together on volume — the day's coordinated move.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 7 Oct · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Same-day clusters on elevated volume mark where positioning is actually changing, regardless of what the index did.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: CHENNPETRO +14.7% (9.9×) · PVRINOX +7.6% (6.9×) · PTCIL +6.8% (5.4×) · BHARTIHEXA +6.6% (11.8×) · PWL +5.8% (3.1×) · GLAND +4.8% (2.7×)
03 The catch
Market Health reads Bear Market
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 7 Oct · percentiles vs 1,297 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
43.9516
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
26.8
17th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
7 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — bear market, Very High risk — 7 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 7 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | −0.52% | −0.76% | 29% | −2.65% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.11% | −0.47% | 33% | −2.21% |
| Next 10 sessions | +2.31% | +1.53% | 83% | −0.27% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.45% | −0.94% | 33% | −3.38% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Bear Market runs a median of 2 session(s) (max 16) — this is session 9. 18% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
Market Health Index (MHI) at 34.5 — a close back above 50 would end the 13th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
0.0% of Bear Market exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−2.21%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- 9 names ran together on volume — the day's coordinated move.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 13th percentile · Very High risk
- Conditions analog: +0.11% avg next 5 · 33% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
9 names ran together on volume — the day's coordinated move. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
BULL