No. 128 · Thursday 27 Aug 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Foreign money turned: cash selling.
FII cash flipped to -₹298 Cr after +₹503 Cr; index closed 24,090.85, -0.48%.
What happenedFII cash -₹298 Cr after +₹503 Cr provisional; DII +₹4,977 Cr; index -0.48% to 24,090.85.
The tensionDomestic flow offset the foreign cash turn, but FII net index futures -197,792 sat at 36th percentile of the year.
Net readForeign selling pressure met domestic absorption; market closed lower with a weak trend.
Nifty Close
24,090.85
−0.48%
Market Phase
🟠 Weak Dntrend
session 3 · ↓ weakening
MHI
41.75
19th %ile
Risk
High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−197.8K
36.2th %ile
Walls
24.0–24.2K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 the crowd: foreign money flipped to cash selling.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 27 Aug · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: FII cash -₹298 Cr after +₹503 Cr provisional; DII +₹4,977 Cr.
02 The turn
02 the turn: futures joined the exit.
What this means: FII net index futures -197,792; 36th percentile of the year.
03 The catch
03 the catch: Market Health Index (MHI) 41.75.
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 27 Aug · percentiles vs 1,271 sessions
What this means: Weak Downtrend, Weakening trend, High risk; 19th percentile, confidence 10.0, phase run length 3.
Phase
🟠 Weak Downtrend
risk High
Participation
59.4378
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
41.6
39th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 days like today: 13 matches.
13 matches; forward 5-day average -0.81%, worst -2.97%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 13 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
−0.11%
−0.25%
38%
−1.65%
Next 5 sessions
−0.81%
−0.87%
33%
−2.97%
Next 10 sessions
−0.76%
−0.90%
36%
−3.54%
Next 20 sessions
−1.14%
−0.87%
36%
−4.92%
Forward 5-day average -0.81% across 13 matches; worst -2.97%.
Conditions like today historically favored a negative 5-day bias: average -0.81%, worst -2.97%.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm: 24,090.85 reclaimed
MHI above 41.75 would question Weak Downtrend.
Watch: 24,090.85 holds
MHI 41.75; 19th percentile; High risk.
Break: lose 24,090.85
MHI below 41.75 keeps downside pressure.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
DII +₹4,977 Cr absorbed foreign cash selling.
FII net index futures -197,792 at 36th percentile of the year.
Conditions like today worst -2.97%, but average -0.81%.
Lines up bearish
FII cash -₹298 Cr after +₹503 Cr provisional.
Market Health Index (MHI) 41.75; 19th percentile; High risk.
13 matches; forward 5-day average -0.81%, worst -2.97%.
Net read: Foreign flow turned negative while domestic flow offset; weak trend and high risk at 24,090.85. Conditions like today historically favored -0.81% average 5-day.
Foreign money turned to cash selling at 24,090.85 with FII cash -₹298 Cr after +₹503 Cr; Market Health Index (MHI) 41.75 at High risk. Conditions like today historically favored -0.81% average forward 5 days.