The StratLab Daily
No. 110 · Monday 3 Aug 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
A Clean Range Break, With the Tape Behind It
High-volume breakout extends to a 102-session high, but Market Health lags.
What happenedThe index surged 1.6% to 24,774.30, its highest close in 102 sessions, with 394 stocks advancing against 103 declining.
The tensionMarket Health remains in Transition with High Risk, signaling the breakout isn't yet fully endorsed by internal conditions.
Net readTactically bullish but strategically cautious until health confirms.
Nifty Close
24,774.30
+1.60%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 1 · ↑ improving
FII Idx Fut
−150.8K
73.4th %ile
Walls
24.6–24.8K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Broad Thrust
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 3 Aug · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A 3.8:1 advance/decline ratio and turnover 1.05x the 20-day average point to genuine institutional buying.
02 The turn
102-Session High
What this means: The close at 24,774.30 breaks a persistent range, marking the highest level in over four months.
03 The catch
Health in Transition
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 3 Aug · percentiles vs 1,253 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) at 56.83 (37th percentile) with High Risk; the trend is improving but not yet robust, confidence 70%.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk High
Participation
57.6305
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
65.4
82th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Historical Analog
53 prior instances with similar conditions averaged a 5-day forward return of +0.93%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 53 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.25% | +0.11% | 55% | −0.93% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.93% | +0.83% | 72% | −2.81% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.76% | +1.31% | 57% | −3.63% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.36% | −0.04% | 45% | −8.18% |
Breakout is underpinned by strong breadth and volume, but transitional, high-risk market health demands confirmation.
Measured Bull
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Sustained close above 24,774.30
Advance/decline ratio holds above 3.8:1
MHI maintains 56.83
Turnover remains at least 1x the 20-day average
Close retreats into the prior 102-session range
MHI drops below 56.83
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- 3.8:1 advance/decline ratio
- Highest close in 102 sessions
- Turnover 1.05x 20-day average
Lines up bearish
- Market Health in Transition
- MHI at 37th percentile
- 5-day worst-case -2.81%
Net read: Breakout is credit positive, but the health lag limits conviction.
A clean range break with strong tape support, yet Market Health remains transitional and high-risk, warranting a measured bullish view.
Regime
BULL