The StratLab Daily
No. 107 · Wednesday 29 Jul 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health just moved from Bear Market to Weak Downtrend.
NIFTY +1.10% to 24,250. A phase transition means the health engine's six-state read of market conditions changed today, not just the index price.
What happenedNIFTY +1.10% to 24,250. Market Health just moved from Bear Market to Weak Downtrend.
The tensionMarket Health is Weak Downtrend at High risk, 19th percentile.
Net readA tactical move inside a fragile backdrop.
Nifty Close
24,250.20
+1.10%
Market Phase
🟠 Weak Dntrend
session 1 · ↑ recovering
FII Idx Fut
−194.8K
36.3th %ile
Walls
24.2–24.3K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Market Health just moved from Bear Market to Weak Downtrend.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 29 Jul · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A phase transition means the health engine's six-state read of market conditions changed today, not just the index price.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: Bear Market → Weak Downtrend · MHI 30.2 → 41.9
03 The catch
Market Health reads Weak Downtrend
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 29 Jul · percentiles vs 1,250 sessions
What this means: the index moved; Market Health's 19th-percentile read says the internals haven't confirmed it yet.
Phase
🟠 Weak Downtrend
risk High
Participation
55.2209
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
52.8
61th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
29 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — weak downtrend, High risk — 29 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 29 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.20% | +0.14% | 55% | −2.11% |
| Next 5 sessions | −0.28% | −0.52% | 41% | −4.84% |
| Next 10 sessions | −0.31% | +0.50% | 52% | −8.48% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.04% | −0.20% | 41% | −5.18% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored caution, with exposure kept tight.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Weak Downtrend runs a median of 1 session(s) (max 6) — this is session 1. 60% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
Market Health Index (MHI) at 41.9 — a close back above 50 would end the 19th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
22.9% of Weak Downtrend exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−4.84%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Market Health just moved from Bear Market to Weak Downtrend.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 19th percentile · High risk
- Conditions analog: −0.28% avg next 5 · 41% win
Net read: A tactical move inside a fragile backdrop.
Market Health just moved from Bear Market to Weak Downtrend. A tactical move inside a fragile backdrop.
Regime
BULL