The StratLab Daily
No. 100 · Monday 20 Jul 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health just moved from Weak Downtrend to Recovery.
NIFTY −0.39% to 24,238. A phase transition means the health engine's six-state read of market conditions changed today, not just the index price.
What happenedNIFTY −0.39% to 24,238. Market Health just moved from Weak Downtrend to Recovery.
The tensionMarket Health is Recovery at High risk, 29th percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
24,238.50
−0.39%
Market Phase
🟡 Recovery
session 1 · ↑ recovering
FII Idx Fut
−219.8K
24.2th %ile
Walls
24.2–24.3K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Market Health just moved from Weak Downtrend to Recovery.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 20 Jul · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A phase transition means the health engine's six-state read of market conditions changed today, not just the index price.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: Weak Downtrend → Recovery · MHI 47.0 → 51.5
03 The catch
Market Health reads Recovery
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 20 Jul · percentiles vs 1,243 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Participation
49.3976
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
53.7
61th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
18 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — recovery, High risk — 18 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 18 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.14% | +0.17% | 56% | −1.18% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.44% | +0.56% | 61% | −3.04% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.44% | +1.42% | 59% | −6.01% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.48% | +0.77% | 65% | −6.83% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Recovery runs a median of 1 session(s) (max 3) — this is session 1. 37% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
Market Health Index (MHI) at 51.5 — a close back above 50 would end the 29th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
13.3% of Recovery exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−3.04%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Market Health just moved from Weak Downtrend to Recovery.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 29th percentile · High risk
- Conditions analog: +0.44% avg next 5 · 61% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Market Health just moved from Weak Downtrend to Recovery. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
BULL