No. 100 · Thursday 16 Jul 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Shifts to Weak Downtrend as Breadth Cracks
The StratLab Breadth Index dropped from 58.6 to 46.2, pushing the market into a high-risk, low-confidence regime.
What happenedMarket Health transitioned from Recovery to Weak Downtrend today.
The tensionStratLab Breadth Index fell to 46.17, sitting in the 23rd percentile.
Net readConditions like today historically favored a 5-day average return of 0.01%, but with a worst-case decline of -4.57%.
Nifty Close
24,072.75
−0.02%
Market Phase
🟠 Weak Dntrend
session 1 · ↓ weakening
MHI
46.17
23rd %ile
Risk
High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−249.9K
10.2th %ile
Walls
24.0–24.2K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 The Crowd: Sideways Drift
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 16 Jul · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The Nifty closed at 24072.75, down 0.02%, but Market Health deteriorated sharply beneath the surface.
02 The turn
02 The Turn: Phase Transition
What this means: Market Health shifted from Recovery to Weak Downtrend, with the Breadth Index tumbling from 58.6 to 46.2.
03 The catch
03 The Catch: Weak Downtrend
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 16 Jul · percentiles vs 1,241 sessions
What this means: Trend is Weakening, Risk is High; confidence is only 10%, and the Breadth Index sits at the 23rd percentile.
Phase
🟠 Weak Downtrend
risk High
Participation
45.2906
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
50.2
55th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 Days Like Today
In 36 similar past setups, the 5-day forward return averaged 0.01%, but the worst outcome was -4.57%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 36 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
−0.19%
−0.04%
44%
−2.18%
Next 5 sessions
+0.01%
+0.05%
56%
−4.57%
Next 10 sessions
+0.38%
+0.72%
64%
−7.03%
Next 20 sessions
−0.45%
+0.12%
53%
−9.93%
Past instances (36 matches) yielded a 5-day average of just 0.01% and a max drawdown of -4.57%.
High risk, low confidence, weakening trend.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm: Breadth Above 58.6
A return to Recovery phase needs the StratLab Breadth Index to reclaim its prior peak of 58.6.
Watch: The 46–58 Range
While the Breadth Index oscillates between 46.2 and 58.6, the market remains in a vulnerable, high-risk posture.
Break: Realizing -4.57%
A 5-day slide approaching the worst-case analog of -4.57% would confirm a deeper downtrend and likely lower Breadth Index.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Nifty flat at 24072.75 (-0.02%) shows no immediate panic selling.
Historical analogs yield a small positive average return of 0.01% over 5 days.
Breadth Index at 46.17 is not at extreme oversold levels, allowing for a possible bounce.
Lines up bearish
Market Health downgraded from Recovery to Weak Downtrend, a clear negative signal.
Breadth Index plummeted from 58.6 to 46.2, reaching the 23rd percentile with low 10% confidence.
The worst-case analog of -4.57% highlights severe downside risk.
Net read: While the Nifty held steady, the shift to a Weak Downtrend with deteriorating breadth and high analog tail risk argues for a defensive posture.
Market Health’s move to Weak Downtrend, paired with a Breadth Index drop to 46.2 and a -4.57% worst-case analog, signals a high-risk environment—even though price barely moved. Caution is warranted.