No. 98 · Tuesday 14 Jul 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Risk Jumps 3 Tiers to Very High as Market Enters Bear Phase
Index falls 0.66% to 24,052; breadth at 14th percentile underscores deteriorating health.
What happenedRisk escalated from Moderate to Very High, a 3-tier jump in one session.
The tensionNo collision — risk and Market Health are in agreement.
Net readNet bearish; Very High risk with a Weakening trend.
Nifty Close
24,052.05
−0.66%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 1 · ↓ weakening
MHI
37.28
14th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−265.5K
4.5th %ile
Walls
24.1–24.1K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The Crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 14 Jul · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Sellers dominated, pushing the index down 0.66% for the day.
02 The turn
The Turn
What this means: A rare 3-tier surge in risk signaled a decisive shift in market character.
03 The catch
Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 14 Jul · percentiles vs 1,239 sessions
What this means: StratLab Breadth Index at 37.3 (14th percentile) confirms Bear Market phase and Very High risk.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
53.3066
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
48.9
53th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days Like Today
119 similar sessions found.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 119 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.16%
+0.14%
56%
−3.24%
Next 5 sessions
+0.44%
+0.25%
54%
−4.86%
Next 10 sessions
+0.54%
+0.34%
53%
−7.37%
Next 20 sessions
+1.24%
+0.75%
64%
−8.66%
Breadth at the 14th percentile often precedes a bounce, but the worst-case analog of -4.86% highlights fragility.
Bearish
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
A 5-day return above 0.44% confirms the historical bounce tendency.
Watch
A drop toward the -4.86% worst-case analog triggers a crash watch.
Break
A close below 24,052 would break the session’s floor and signal a breakdown.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
119 similar sessions averaged a 0.44% 5-day gain.
Breadth at the 14th percentile often leads to mean reversion.
The 0.66% daily drop was modest relative to the risk spike.
Lines up bearish
Bear Market phase coupled with Very High risk.
Worst-case analog of -4.86% dwarfs the average bounce.
Breadth reading of 37.3 leaves ample room for further decline.
Net read: Net bearish with a tactical bounce bias; risk elevated but oversold breadth signals a possible snapback.
The market’s risk profile deteriorated sharply, landing in a Bear Market with breadth at the 14th percentile. Historical analogs suggest a 0.44% average bounce over 5 days, yet the -4.86% worst-case warns that downside momentum could persist.