The StratLab Daily
No. 90 · Thursday 2 Jul 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data

Nifty hits 24,175.70, highest close in 37 sessions, with 0.71% rally

Strong Bull phase initiates as breadth expands and market health improves.

What happenedA clean range break with positive participation shifted the burden to sellers.
The tensionThe Strong Bull phase is just 1 day old, and turnover was 0.93x average.
Net readConditions favor the breakout holding; the path of least resistance is higher.
Nifty Close
24,175.70
+0.71%
Market Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
session 1 · ↑ improving
MHI
74.76
62nd %ile
Risk
Low
confidence 100
FII Idx Fut
−256.9K
6.5th %ile
Walls
24.0–24.2K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd

The Crowd

Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 2 Jul · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: 346 advancers against 152 decliners, net breadth surged to +194 from +79 prior.
02 The turn

The Turn

What this means: Close at 24,175.70 broke a 37-session range, signaling a bullish resolution.
03 The catch

Market Health

Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 2 Jul · percentiles vs 1,231 sessions
What this means: StratLab Breadth Index rose to 74.76 (61.6th percentile), moving into Strong Bull with 100% confidence.
Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
risk Low
Participation
54.9098
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
66.5
83th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today

Days Like Today

Strong Bull phase, improving trend, low risk.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 263 · tier: exact
HorizonAvgMedianWin rateWorst
Next session+0.07%+0.07%57%−5.93%
Next 5 sessions+0.32%+0.59%60%−6.33%
Next 10 sessions+0.49%+0.62%61%−9.20%
Next 20 sessions+0.85%+1.16%65%−12.41%
Historically, 263 matches suggest a mildly positive bias.

Conditions like today historically favor a +0.32% average 5-day return, but the tail risk extends to -6.33%.

05 Tomorrow's tripwires

Three checks that settle the argument

Breakout Confirmed
Close at 24,175.70, the highest in 37 sessions, confirms the range break.
Volume Watch
Turnover at 0.93x the 20-day average was below normal; a pickup would add conviction.
Pattern Failure
A 5-day decline exceeding the historical worst-case -6.33% would negate the analog.
The ledger

Where that leaves us

Lines up bullish
  • 37-session high close confirms momentum.
  • Strong Bull phase with 100% confidence.
  • Breadth surge: +194 net advancers.
Lines up bearish
  • Phase only 1 day old; can reverse.
  • Volume 0.93x average, lacking strong participation.
  • Analog worst-case 5-day return of -6.33%.

Net read: With a fresh Strong Bull phase at 100% confidence and surging breadth, the net view historically favors a mild upside, but the low volume and single-day phase warrant caution.

Nifty's breakout to 24,175.70 shifts the burden to sellers, yet the 1-day-old phase and 0.93x volume suggest the all-clear hasn't sounded.

Regime