No. 81 · Thursday 18 Jun 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Foreign Cash Turns to Selling, Yet Nifty Edges Up 0.34%
DIIs absorbed the blow with ₹2,228 Cr buying, keeping the index at 24,168.
What happenedFIIs sold ₹1,814 Cr in cash after a +₹890 Cr session, but Nifty closed at 24,168 (+0.34%).
The tensionMarket Health holds at Strong Bull (MHI 72.98) despite the FII cash outflow.
Net readConditions like today historically favored an average +0.33% 5-day return.
Nifty Close
24,168.00
+0.34%
Market Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
session 2 · ↑ improving
MHI
72.98
59th %ile
Risk
Low
confidence 90
FII Idx Fut
−221.5K
15.8th %ile
Walls
24.0–24.2K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The Crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 18 Jun · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The crowd saw FIIs reverse to cash selling of ₹1,814 Cr and index futures at the 16th percentile of the year. DIIs countered with +₹2,228 Cr.
02 The turn
The Turn
What this means: FII cash swung from +₹890 Cr settled to -₹1,814 Cr, marking a sharp turn in foreign flow.
03 The catch
Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 18 Jun · percentiles vs 1,222 sessions
What this means: Phase remains Strong Bull (MHI 72.98, 59.1 percentile), trend improving, risk low. This is day 2 of the phase.
Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
risk Low
Participation
51.503
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
73.1
89th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days Like Today
In 261 similar sessions, the average 5-day forward return was +0.33%, with a worst case of -6.33%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 261 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.08%
+0.08%
57%
−5.93%
Next 5 sessions
+0.33%
+0.60%
61%
−6.33%
Next 10 sessions
+0.49%
+0.66%
61%
−9.20%
Next 20 sessions
+0.85%
+1.16%
65%
−12.41%
Conditions like today historically favored a +0.33% average forward return.
Bullish
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Wire Confirm
Nifty sustains above 24,168 and MHI remains above 72.98, with FII index futures percentile improving from 16th.
Wire Watch
Nifty falls below 24,168 or MHI drops below the 59.1 percentile.
Wire Break
A 5-day decline exceeding -6.33% from current levels, matching the worst-case analog.
261 similar days averaged +0.33% forward 5-day return.
DII buying of ₹2,228 Cr provided support.
Lines up bearish
FII cash selling of ₹1,814 Cr marks a negative turn.
FII net index futures at -221,476, only 16th percentile this year.
Worst-case analog forward 5-day return of -6.33%.
Net read: Net view leans bullish: conditions like today favored +0.33% avg forward return, but FII selling is a watchpoint.
The market rose despite FII cash selling, supported by DIIs. Market Health remains Strong Bull, and historical analogs suggest a positive bias, though the worst-case -6.33% warrants caution.