The StratLab Daily
No. 77 · Tuesday 16 Jun 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Risk eased 2 tiers to Moderate.
NIFTY +0.57% to 23,989. A multi-tier risk move in one session is rare — the engine's five-tier scale rarely skips a step.
What happenedNIFTY +0.57% to 23,989. Risk eased 2 tiers to Moderate.
The tensionMarket Health is Healthy Uptrend at Moderate risk, 49th percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
23,989.15
+0.57%
Market Phase
🟢 Healthy Uptrend
session 1 · ↑ improving
Risk
Moderate
confidence 90
FII Idx Fut
−229.6K
10.9th %ile
Walls
23.9–24.0K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Risk eased 2 tiers to Moderate.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 16 Jun · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A multi-tier risk move in one session is rare — the engine's five-tier scale rarely skips a step.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: High → Moderate · confidence 90
03 The catch
Market Health reads Healthy Uptrend
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 16 Jun · percentiles vs 1,220 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Phase
🟢 Healthy Uptrend
risk Moderate
Participation
55.7114
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
69.9
86th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
49 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — healthy uptrend, Moderate risk — 49 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 49 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.11% | +0.13% | 57% | −1.50% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.00% | +0.36% | 53% | −5.77% |
| Next 10 sessions | −0.02% | +0.23% | 51% | −7.62% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.16% | −0.24% | 49% | −11.96% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Healthy Uptrend runs a median of 1 session(s) (max 7) — this is session 1. 54% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
Market Health Index (MHI) at 67.0 — a close back above 50 would end the 49th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
0.0% of Healthy Uptrend exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−5.77%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Risk eased 2 tiers to Moderate.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 49th percentile · Moderate risk
- Conditions analog: +0.00% avg next 5 · 53% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Risk eased 2 tiers to Moderate. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
BULL