The StratLab Daily
No. 77 · Friday 12 Jun 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health transitions to Transition; gauge leaps from 25.8 to 56.6
A 1.92% up day shifts the health engine with 70% confidence, run length 1.
What happenedMarket Health transitioned from Bear Market to Transition. MHI rose from 25.8 to 56.6.
The tensionThe new phase begins with high risk, an MHI percentile of 36.2, and a run length of 1.
Net readThe internal turn is positive, but the health gauge sits at only the 36.2 percentile.
Nifty Close
23,631.45
+1.92%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 1 · ↑ improving
FII Idx Fut
−243.6K
7.3th %ile
Walls
23.5–23.8K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The Crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 12 Jun · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A 1.92% surge pushed the close to 23631.45.
02 The turn
The Turn
What this means: Market Health flipped from Bear Market to Transition; MHI 25.8 → 56.6.
03 The catch
Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 12 Jun · percentiles vs 1,218 sessions
What this means: Transition, MHI 56.6 (36.2 percentile, 70% confidence). Trend improving, risk high.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk High
Participation
54.7094
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
50.1
56th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days Like Today
Improving but High Risk
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 52 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.24% | +0.08% | 54% | −0.93% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.92% | +0.82% | 71% | −2.81% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.75% | +1.12% | 56% | −3.63% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.31% | −0.21% | 43% | −8.18% |
Confidence in the new phase is 70% after just one day; follow‑through is essential.
Conditions like today historically favored a 0.92% average 5-day return, though the worst case reached -2.81%.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
MHI stays above 56.6 and 5‑day return reaches 0.92%.
Watch
A pullback erasing the 1.92% gain or MHI dropping below 36.2 percentile.
Break
A 5‑day loss worse than -2.81% or MHI falling back to 25.8.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- MHI surged from 25.8 to 56.6, exiting Bear Market.
- Historical 5‑day average of 0.92% across 52 matches.
- Phase change registered with 70% confidence.
Lines up bearish
- Worst‑case 5‑day forward is -2.81%.
- MHI percentile only 36.2; risk stays high.
- Run length of 1 session leaves the move unconfirmed.
Net read: The transition is a constructive shift, but the 36.2 MHI percentile and high risk keep the outlook fragile.
Market Health’s jump to Transition lifts the tactical tilt, but a 36.2 percentile MHI and a -2.81% worst‑case keep the backdrop in check.
Regime
BULL