No. 75 · Wednesday 10 Jun 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Enters Bear Market; MHI Drops to 27.1 (6th %ile)
Internal damage far outweighed the -0.04% index move, as MHI plunged from 44.6 to 27.1 in a single session.
What happenedPhase transition: Transition → Bear Market.
The tensionMHI dropped from 44.6 to 27.1, signaling acute internal breakdown.
Net readNet Bearish with Very High risk.
Nifty Close
23,233.10
−0.04%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 1 · ↓ weakening
MHI
27.09
6th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−272.0K
1.6th %ile
Walls
23.2–23.3K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
the crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 10 Jun · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The index slipped -0.04% to 23233.1, but the modest move belied severe breadth deterioration.
02 The turn
the turn
What this means: Market Health transitioned from Transition to Bear Market, with MHI falling from 44.6 to 27.1.
03 The catch
the catch
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 10 Jun · percentiles vs 1,216 sessions
What this means: Bear Market phase, MHI at 27.1 (6th percentile), Very High risk, trend Weakening.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
57.9158
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
35.1
31th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
days like today
116 similar health conditions produced a 5-day average return of +0.35% and worst-case -4.86%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 116 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.15%
+0.14%
55%
−3.24%
Next 5 sessions
+0.35%
+0.24%
53%
−4.86%
Next 10 sessions
+0.42%
+0.06%
51%
−7.37%
Next 20 sessions
+1.12%
+0.67%
60%
−8.66%
On average, similar health extremes favored a +0.35% 5-day bounce, but the left tail risk was -4.86%.
Defensive; the new Bear Market phase demands caution.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
A 5-day return below -4.86% confirms the bear phase analog.
Watch
MHI recovery above 44.6 would signal the bear phase was false.
Break
A rally above 23233.1 with MHI rising past 44.6 would break the bear structure.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Historical 5-day average return is +0.35%.
MHI at 6th percentile often precedes a bounce.
Index decline was just -0.04%, indicating no panic.
Lines up bearish
Bear Market phase newly confirmed, MHI at 27.1.
Worst-case 5-day forward return of -4.86%.
Market Health confidence is low at 10%.
Net read: Bearish. While the average 5-day outlook is +0.35%, the bear phase and -4.86% worst-case risk dominate.
The shift to Bear Market with MHI at 27.1 (6th %ile) trumps the flat -0.04% daily move. Conditions like today favored a +0.35% average 5-day return but with a severe -4.86% tail, warranting caution.