No. 67 · Friday 29 May 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Risk Jumps 2 Tiers to Very High on 1.5% Drop
Market Health sank to 31.29—an 8.6 percentile bear phase. Similar days average +0.4% forward but worst-case -4.86%.
What happenedRisk surged from Elevated to Very High in one session.
The tensionA rare multi-tier risk move coexists with a 0.4% average historical bounce—but confidence is low given the -4.86% worst case.
Net readBearish
Nifty Close
23,547.75
−1.50%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 1 · ↓ weakening
MHI
31.29
9th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−201.3K
16.2th %ile
Walls
23.5–23.6K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Risk Jumps 2 Tiers
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 29 May · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The StratLab Breadth Index flagged a leap from Elevated to Very High on a 1.5% drop—a rare multi-tier shift.
02 The turn
Bear Phase Begins
What this means: Market Health Index fell to 31.29, sliding into the 8.6th percentile and activating a Bear Market phase.
03 The catch
Health Is Deeply Weak
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 29 May · percentiles vs 1,208 sessions
What this means: At 31.29 MHI, trend is weakening and risk is Very High with maximum confidence 10.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
81.9639
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
44.9
46th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Analog Days Show Mixed Edge
In 112 similar days, the 5-day forward average was +0.4%, but the worst case was -4.86%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 112 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.15%
+0.14%
54%
−3.24%
Next 5 sessions
+0.40%
+0.26%
55%
−4.86%
Next 10 sessions
+0.48%
+0.33%
53%
−7.37%
Next 20 sessions
+1.13%
+0.68%
61%
−8.66%
Trend weakening, risk very high; the engine found 112 similar days with a tepid +0.4% edge.
Defensive
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
MHI Holds Above 31.29
If Market Health stabilizes above its current 31.29, a temporary floor may form.
Price Clings to 23,548
The close at 23,547.75 is the immediate line; a break lower opens the door to the -4.86% worst case.
Worst Case -4.86% Triggers
A 5-day decline exceeding the historical worst -4.86% would invalidate the analog pattern.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Average 5-day return +0.4%
Large analog sample of 112 days
Lines up bearish
Market Health at 8.6 percentile
Worst-case forward -4.86%
Risk at Very High (confidence 10)
Net read: Net bearish. The 0.4% average upside is dwarfed by an 8.6 percentile MHI, a fresh bear phase, and a -4.86% worst-case scenario.
Market plunged 1.5% as risk hit Very High and health hit 31.29—a 8.6 percentile bear. Similar days average +0.4% but the -4.86% worst case and very high risk keep posture defensive.