The StratLab Daily
No. 49 · Monday 4 May 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Risk eased 2 tiers to Low.
NIFTY +0.51% to 24,119. A multi-tier risk move in one session is rare — the engine's five-tier scale rarely skips a step.
What happenedNIFTY +0.51% to 24,119. Risk eased 2 tiers to Low.
The tensionMarket Health is Strong Bull at Low risk, 61st percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
24,119.30
+0.51%
Market Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
session 1 · ↑ improving
FII Idx Fut
−192.6K
15.8th %ile
Walls
24.0–24.2K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Risk eased 2 tiers to Low.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 4 May · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A multi-tier risk move in one session is rare — the engine's five-tier scale rarely skips a step.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: Elevated → Low · confidence 100
03 The catch
Market Health reads Strong Bull
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 4 May · percentiles vs 1,190 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
risk Low
Participation
48.8978
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
75.0
86th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
257 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — strong bull, Low risk — 257 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 257 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.08% | +0.09% | 58% | −5.93% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.37% | +0.63% | 62% | −6.33% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.55% | +0.75% | 62% | −9.20% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.92% | +1.25% | 66% | −12.41% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Strong Bull runs a median of 3 session(s) (max 22) — this is session 1. 22% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
MHI at 75.4 — a close back above 50 would end the 61st-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
3.7% of Strong Bull exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−6.33%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Risk eased 2 tiers to Low.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 61st percentile · Low risk
- Conditions analog: +0.37% avg next 5 · 62% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Risk eased 2 tiers to Low. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
BEAR