The StratLab Daily
No. 47 · Wednesday 29 Apr 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Nifty Gains 0.76% as Risk Eases to Low
Breadth improves, confidence 90%; historical conditions lean positive.
What happenedRisk eased from Moderate to Low in a single session.
The tensionStrong Bull phase day 3; breadth improving but percentile moderate.
Net readBullish
Nifty Close
24,177.65
+0.76%
Market Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
session 3 · ↑ improving
FII Idx Fut
−171.1K
33.9th %ile
Walls
24.0–24.3K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The Crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 29 Apr · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Index rose 0.76% to 24,177.65, assuaging immediate concerns.
02 The turn
The Turn
What this means: Risk gauge dropped one tier to Low, a rare event with 90% confidence.
03 The catch
Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 29 Apr · percentiles vs 1,188 sessions
What this means: Strong Bull phase with improving trend; StratLab Breadth Index at 78.16 (64.6 percentile).
Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
risk Low
Participation
55.511
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
82.2
92th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days Like Today
In 256 similar sessions, 5-day forward return averaged +0.37%, worst case -6.33%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 256 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.08% | +0.09% | 58% | −5.93% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.37% | +0.63% | 62% | −6.33% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.55% | +0.75% | 62% | −9.20% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.92% | +1.25% | 66% | −12.41% |
Conditions like today historically favored positive outcomes.
Risk-On
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
Risk Low with 90% confidence; average forward return +0.37%.
Watch
Worst-case analog drop of -6.33%; any reversal that challenges phase.
Break
A decline exceeding -6.33% would be worse than any similar past session.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Strong Bull phase, risk Low
- Improving breadth at 78.16
- Historical 5-day bias +0.37%
Lines up bearish
- Breadth index at 64.6 percentile, not extreme
- Worst-case analog -6.33%
- Phase only 3 days old
Net read: Net view leans bullish, supported by risk drop and positive historical analogs.
Risk fell to Low inside a Strong Bull market; history favors further gains, though phases can be short-lived.
Regime
BEAR