No. 44 · Friday 24 Apr 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Moves to Transition as Nifty Drops 1.14%
MHI fell to 57.19; 15 analog instances point to -0.93% average 5-day forward return.
What happenedNifty closed at 23,897.95, down 1.14%. Market Health transitioned from Healthy Uptrend to Transition, with MHI dropping from 62.8 to 57.2.
The tensionThe health change comes without a trigger analog, signaling a non-systematic shift. Confidence in the transition stands at 35.0%.
Net readConditions like today have historically produced a -0.93% average 5-day return across 15 matches, with a worst-case of -5.61%.
Nifty Close
23,897.95
−1.14%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 1 · → stable
MHI
57.19
36th %ile
Risk
Elevated
confidence 35
FII Idx Fut
−204.1K
10.1th %ile
Walls
23.8–24.0K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The Crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 24 Apr · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Nifty fell 1.14% to 23,897.95 on a day of elevated risk.
02 The turn
The Turn
What this means: Market Health transitioned from Healthy Uptrend to Transition; MHI dropped from 62.8 to 57.2.
03 The catch
Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 24 Apr · percentiles vs 1,185 sessions
What this means: MHI at 57.19 in the 36.3 percentile, with 35.0% confidence. Phase run length is 1 day.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk Elevated
Participation
49.6994
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
83.2
94th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days Like Today
Transition phase, stable trend, elevated risk.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 15 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.01%
−0.01%
47%
−2.64%
Next 5 sessions
−0.93%
−1.01%
47%
−5.61%
Next 10 sessions
−1.84%
−2.13%
20%
−7.78%
Next 20 sessions
−1.39%
−2.31%
40%
−9.19%
15 historical analogs show an average -0.93% forward 5-day return.
Cautious
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
MHI reclaims 62.8
A move back to the Healthy Uptrend MHI level would confirm recovery.
MHI holds 57.2
Current transition level; further decline would deepen the negative outlook.
Worst-case analog
A 5-day return worse than -5.61% would break below the worst historical match.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Phase run length of 1 day suggests an early-stage transition.
Average 5-day forward return of -0.93% is limited.
15 analog matches provide a historical context for mild average losses.
Lines up bearish
1-day drop of 1.14% breaks short-term momentum.
MHI fell from 62.8 to 57.2 in one session.
Worst-case analog saw -5.61%.
Net read: The transition in Market Health, combined with a 1.14% decline and historically negative analogs, suggests near-term caution.
Market Health moved to Transition; with elevated risk and 35% confidence, the path of least resistance leans lower in the short term.