The StratLab Daily
No. 38 · Thursday 16 Apr 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Participation is at a yearly extreme.
NIFTY −0.14% to 24,197. Breadth extremes precede either exhaustion or trend acceleration; either way the base rate changes.
What happenedNIFTY −0.14% to 24,197. Participation is at a yearly extreme.
The tensionMarket Health is Healthy Uptrend at Moderate risk, 47th percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
24,196.75
−0.14%
Market Phase
🟢 Healthy Uptrend
session 3 · ↑ improving
Risk
Moderate
confidence 90
FII Idx Fut
−199.0K
11.3th %ile
Walls
24.1–24.2K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Participation is at a yearly extreme.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 16 Apr · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Breadth extremes precede either exhaustion or trend acceleration; either way the base rate changes.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: StratLab Breadth Index 92.0% — 100th percentile of the trailing year
03 The catch
Market Health reads Healthy Uptrend
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 16 Apr · percentiles vs 1,181 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Phase
🟢 Healthy Uptrend
risk Moderate
Participation
47.2946
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
92.0
100th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
47 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — healthy uptrend, Moderate risk — 47 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 47 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.10% | +0.13% | 55% | −1.50% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.05% | +0.40% | 56% | −5.77% |
| Next 10 sessions | −0.01% | +0.34% | 53% | −7.62% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.36% | +0.11% | 53% | −11.96% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Healthy Uptrend runs a median of 1 session(s) (max 7) — this is session 3. 54% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
MHI at 65.4 — a close back above 50 would end the 47th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
0.0% of Healthy Uptrend exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−5.77%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Participation is at a yearly extreme.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 47th percentile · Moderate risk
- Conditions analog: +0.05% avg next 5 · 56% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Participation is at a yearly extreme. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
BEAR