The StratLab Daily
No. 36 · Monday 13 Apr 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health just moved from Transition to Healthy Uptrend.
NIFTY −0.86% to 23,843. A phase transition means the health engine's six-state read of market conditions changed today, not just the index price.
What happenedNIFTY −0.86% to 23,843. Market Health just moved from Transition to Healthy Uptrend.
The tensionMarket Health is Healthy Uptrend at Moderate risk, 44th percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
23,842.65
−0.86%
Market Phase
🟢 Healthy Uptrend
session 1 · ↑ improving
Risk
Moderate
confidence 70
FII Idx Fut
−208.4K
8.5th %ile
Walls
23.8–23.9K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Market Health just moved from Transition to Healthy Uptrend.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 13 Apr · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A phase transition means the health engine's six-state read of market conditions changed today, not just the index price.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: Transition → Healthy Uptrend · MHI 61.4 → 63.6
03 The catch
Market Health reads Healthy Uptrend
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 13 Apr · percentiles vs 1,179 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Phase
🟢 Healthy Uptrend
risk Moderate
Participation
30.7229
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
87.6
99th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
45 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — healthy uptrend, Moderate risk — 45 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 45 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.07% | +0.13% | 56% | −1.50% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.05% | +0.40% | 56% | −5.77% |
| Next 10 sessions | −0.01% | +0.34% | 53% | −7.62% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.36% | +0.11% | 53% | −11.96% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Healthy Uptrend runs a median of 1 session(s) (max 7) — this is session 1. 54% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
MHI at 63.6 — a close back above 50 would end the 44th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
0.0% of Healthy Uptrend exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−5.77%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Market Health just moved from Transition to Healthy Uptrend.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 44th percentile · Moderate risk
- Conditions analog: +0.05% avg next 5 · 56% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Market Health just moved from Transition to Healthy Uptrend. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
BEAR