No. 33 · Wednesday 8 Apr 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Participation is at a yearly extreme.
NIFTY +3.78% to 23,997. Breadth extremes precede either exhaustion or trend acceleration; either way the base rate changes.
What happenedNIFTY +3.78% to 23,997. Participation is at a yearly extreme.
The tensionMarket Health is Transition at High risk, 31st percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
23,997.35
+3.78%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 5 · ↑ improving
MHI
53.13
31st %ile
Risk
High
confidence 70
FII Idx Fut
−227.4K
6.5th %ile
Walls
—
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Participation is at a yearly extreme.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 8 Apr · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Breadth extremes precede either exhaustion or trend acceleration; either way the base rate changes.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: StratLab Breadth Index 84.0% — 98th percentile of the trailing year
03 The catch
Market Health reads Transition
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 8 Apr · percentiles vs 1,176 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk High
Participation
58.8353
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
84.0
98th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
49 sessions like this one.
20 prior episodes of a comparable setup. History paid for about a week.
avg NIFTY forward return · 20 episodes · all recorded history
Episodes matched20
Next 5 sessions, avg+0.03%
Win rate, 5 sessions70.0%
Next 10 sessions, avg-0.95%
Worst 5-session outcome-12.15%
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — transition, High risk — 49 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 49 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.25%
+0.11%
55%
−0.77%
Next 5 sessions
+0.87%
+0.81%
71%
−2.81%
Next 10 sessions
+0.78%
+1.40%
54%
−3.63%
Next 20 sessions
+0.35%
−0.13%
44%
−8.18%
The trigger conditions on today's specific setup; the terrain conditions on the broader Market Health signature. When they disagree, the disagreement is the information.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Transition runs a median of 1 session(s) (max 9) — this is session 5. 53% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
MHI at 53.1 — a close back above 50 would end the 31st-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
19.6% of Transition exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−2.81%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Participation is at a yearly extreme.
Trigger analog: +0.03% avg next 5 · 70.0% win
Lines up bearish
Market Health 31st percentile · High risk
Conditions analog: +0.87% avg next 5 · 71% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Participation is at a yearly extreme. Conditions broadly line up with the move.