No. 29 · Wednesday 1 Apr 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Nifty Surges 1.56% as Breadth Index Climbs to 41.2, Entering Transition
The StratLab Breadth Index rose from 30.2 to 41.2, pulling Market Health out of Bear phase. Conditions like today have historically produced a 0.56% average 5-day return.
What happenedMarket Health transitioned from Bear to Transition as the StratLab Breadth Index jumped from 30.2 to 41.2.
The tensionDespite the upgrade, the Breadth Index remains at a low 17.6 percentile with high risk confidence at 60%.
Net readImprovement is notable but fragile; the market is not yet out of danger.
Nifty Close
22,679.40
+1.56%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 1 · ↑ improving
MHI
41.16
18th %ile
Risk
High
confidence 60
FII Idx Fut
−264.8K
0.8th %ile
Walls
22.6–22.7K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The Crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 1 Apr · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Nifty 50 closed at 22,679.4 with a 1.56% gain, reflecting broad buying interest.
02 The turn
The Turn
What this means: Market Health flipped from Bear to Transition, with StratLab Breadth Index rising from 30.2 to 41.2.
03 The catch
The Catch
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 1 Apr · percentiles vs 1,172 sessions
What this means: Now in Transition, the Breadth Index at 41.2 sits at the 17.6 percentile; trend improving but risk remains high.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk High
Participation
31.7269
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
27.0
17th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days Like Today
Transition
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 7 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.02%
+0.37%
57%
−2.09%
Next 5 sessions
+0.56%
+1.26%
83%
−6.11%
Next 10 sessions
+1.10%
+1.71%
50%
−6.12%
Next 20 sessions
+1.24%
−0.93%
33%
−3.03%
Conditions like today historically favored a 0.56% average forward return, but with only 7 matches the tail risk is -6.11%.
Cautious
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
StratLab Breadth Index holding above 41.2 and its percentile moving beyond 17.6 would confirm the transition is gaining traction.
Watch
A reversal that pushes the Breadth Index back toward 30.2 or the index giving up its 1.56% gain would warrant caution.
Break
A full return to Bear Market with the Breadth Index at or below 30.2 would invalidate the transition signal.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Phase transition from Bear to Transition historically precedes positive forward returns.
The 1.56% surge came with improved breadth (StratLab Breadth Index up to 41.2).
Similar conditions averaged +0.56% over the next week.
Lines up bearish
Breadth Index is still at a low 17.6 percentile, indicating a weak overall structure.
The worst-case analog outcome was a steep -6.11%.
Transition phases can fail quickly; run length is only 1 day.
Net read: The transition is an encouraging sign but remains unproven; risk management is essential.
The market's internal gauge improved sharply, but with the Breadth Index at only 41.2 and a small sample of similar days averaging a modest +0.56% forward return, evidence is not yet conclusive.