The StratLab Daily
No. 21 · Wednesday 18 Mar 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Participation has collapsed to a yearly extreme.
NIFTY +0.83% to 23,778. Breadth extremes precede either exhaustion or trend acceleration; either way the base rate changes.
What happenedNIFTY +0.83% to 23,778. Participation has collapsed to a yearly extreme.
The tensionMarket Health is Bear Market at Very High risk, 10th percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
23,777.80
+0.83%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 12 · ↑ recovering
Risk
Very High
confidence 35
FII Idx Fut
−225.8K
2.4th %ile
01 The crowd
Participation has collapsed to a yearly extreme.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 18 Mar · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Breadth extremes precede either exhaustion or trend acceleration; either way the base rate changes.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: StratLab Breadth Index 22.2% — 8th percentile of the trailing year
03 The catch
Market Health reads Bear Market
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 18 Mar · percentiles vs 1,164 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
45.5823
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
22.2
8th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
56 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — bear market, Very High risk — 56 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 56 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | −0.16% | −0.16% | 34% | −4.78% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.14% | +0.10% | 54% | −4.77% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.56% | +0.88% | 58% | −4.30% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.33% | +0.68% | 62% | −3.24% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Bear Market runs a median of 2 session(s) (max 14) — this is session 12. 18% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
Market Health Index (MHI) at 34.2 — a close back above 50 would end the 10th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
0.0% of Bear Market exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−4.77%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Participation has collapsed to a yearly extreme.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 10th percentile · Very High risk
- Conditions analog: +0.14% avg next 5 · 54% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Participation has collapsed to a yearly extreme. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
BEAR