The StratLab Daily
No. 18 · Friday 13 Mar 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data

A 2.1% down day — the question is who sold.

Nifty closes at 23,151.10, down 2.06%, with breadth at 42 advances to 458 declines and turnover at 1.12x the 20-day average.

What happenedNifty fell 2.06% to 23,151.10.
The tensionThe selloff was broad-based: only 42 stocks advanced while 458 declined, and turnover surged to 1.12x average.
Net readBearish
Nifty Close
23,151.10
−2.06%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 9 · ↓ weakening
MHI
11.24
1st %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−260.5K
0.4th %ile
Walls
—
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd

01 The Crowd

Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 13 Mar · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The crowd fixates on the 2.1% drop, but the 42/458 advance-decline ratio reveals a deeper, systematic selloff.
02 The turn

02 The Turn

What this means: The bear phase extended to a 9-day losing streak as the Nifty shed 2.06%, closing at 23,151.10.
03 The catch

03 The Catch (Market Health)

Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 13 Mar · percentiles vs 1,161 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index collapsed to 11.24 (1.1 percentile, confidence 10.0), signaling very high risk in a bear market.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
55.6225
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
12.8
1th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today

04 Days Like Today

Bear market, weakening trend, extreme breadth deterioration.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 104 · tier: exact
HorizonAvgMedianWin rateWorst
Next session+0.11%+0.09%52%−3.24%
Next 5 sessions+0.44%+0.30%56%−4.86%
Next 10 sessions+0.64%+0.41%54%−7.37%
Next 20 sessions+1.22%+0.69%62%−6.97%
The StratLab Breadth Index reflected extreme weakness alongside the Market Health Index, confirming a bear phase now 9 days old.

Defensive

05 Tomorrow's tripwires

Three checks that settle the argument

Confirmation
Turnover at 1.12x the 20-day average confirms strong institutional participation behind the selloff.
Watch
A bounce that fails to reclaim the 2.06% loss would reinforce the bearish structure.
Break
A decline exceeding 4.86% over the next 5 days would surpass the worst historical analog and signal an accelerating breakdown.
The ledger

Where that leaves us

Lines up bullish
  • Historical analogs point to an average 0.44% bounce over the next 5 days.
  • Market Health Index at 1.1 percentile is deeply oversold, often preceding mean reversion.
  • Elevated turnover may indicate capitulation, a potential precursor to a short-term bottom.
Lines up bearish
  • Bear phase has persisted for 9 days with a weakening trend and very high risk.
  • Advance-decline ratio of 42/458 underscores overwhelming selling pressure.
  • Worst-case 5-day analog of -4.86% leaves material downside risk on the table.

Net read: The market is deeply oversold within a bear phase, offering a tactical bounce opportunity, but the primary trend remains down until breadth improves.

A 2.1% drop driven by institutional selling sent the Market Health Index to a 1.1 percentile extreme; while history leans toward a short-term bounce, the bear market remains intact and caution is paramount.

Regime