The StratLab Daily
No. 16 · Wednesday 11 Mar 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
A 1.6% down day — the question is who sold.
NIFTY −1.63% to 23,867. Size of decline matters less than participation and delivery behind it.
What happenedNIFTY −1.63% to 23,867. A 1.6% down day — the question is who sold.
The tensionMarket Health is Bear Market at Very High risk, 4th percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
23,866.85
−1.63%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 7 · ↓ weakening
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−206.3K
1.2th %ile
01 The crowd
A 1.6% down day — the question is who sold.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 11 Mar · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Size of decline matters less than participation and delivery behind it.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: Close 23,866.85 (-1.63%) · A/D 154/344 · turnover 0.94× 20-day avg
03 The catch
Market Health reads Bear Market
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 11 Mar · percentiles vs 1,159 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
51.8072
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
19.0
5th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
103 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — bear market, Very High risk — 103 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 103 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.12% | +0.10% | 52% | −3.24% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.44% | +0.30% | 56% | −4.86% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.64% | +0.41% | 54% | −7.37% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.22% | +0.69% | 62% | −6.97% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Bear Market runs a median of 2 session(s) (max 14) — this is session 7. 18% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
MHI at 22.7 — a close back above 50 would end the 4th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
0.0% of Bear Market exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−4.86%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- A 1.6% down day — the question is who sold.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 4th percentile · Very High risk
- Conditions analog: +0.44% avg next 5 · 56% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
A 1.6% down day — the question is who sold. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
BULL