No. 14 · Monday 9 Mar 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
A 1.7% Drop — Who Sold?
Breadth 61/439 and turnover 1.05× average signal institutional distribution.
What happenedThe Nifty fell 1.73% to 24,028.05.
The tensionThe decline’s size masks severe breadth damage: only 61 stocks advanced versus 439 declining.
Net readTurnover at 1.05× the 20-day average confirms the move was driven by heavy, broad-based selling.
Nifty Close
24,028.05
−1.73%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 5 · ↓ weakening
MHI
12.14
1st %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−193.9K
4.1th %ile
Walls
—
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The Crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 9 Mar · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Nifty closed at 24,028.05, down 1.73%, with just 61 advances against 439 declines.
02 The turn
The Turn
What this means: Selling was defined by breadth collapse to 61/439 and turnover 1.05× average — a shift from retail shakeout to institutional distribution.
03 The catch
Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 9 Mar · percentiles vs 1,157 sessions
What this means: StratLab Breadth Index at 12.14 (1.2th percentile). Phase: Bear Market, risk very high. Trend weakening, now 5 sessions in.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
42.7711
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
14.6
3th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days Like Today
Conditions like today historically favored an average 5-day return of +0.5% (worst -4.86%).
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 102 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.11%
+0.09%
52%
−3.24%
Next 5 sessions
+0.50%
+0.34%
57%
−4.86%
Next 10 sessions
+0.64%
+0.41%
54%
−7.37%
Next 20 sessions
+1.22%
+0.69%
62%
−6.97%
102 historical analogs show a positive average 5-day bias of +0.5%, but the tail risk is a -4.86% drop.
Defensive
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Bull Confirmation
A recovery in the StratLab Breadth Index above 12.14, lifting out of the 1.2th percentile, would signal stabilization.
Bear Watch
If the StratLab Breadth Index remains near 12.14 and the Bear Market phase extends past 5 sessions, downside pressure persists.
Break Level
A decline exceeding the worst-case analog of -4.86% from 24,028.05 would mark a deeper breakdown.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Historical analogs (102 matches) produced an average 5-day return of +0.5%.
Today’s 1.73% decline may signal a short-term oversold extreme given the 1.2th percentile breadth.
Lines up bearish
StratLab Breadth Index at 12.14 sits in the lowest 1.2% of all readings — deep bear territory.
Market Health phase is Bear Market with weakening trend and very high risk, now in its 5th session.
The worst-case analog outcome is a -4.86% plunge from current levels.
Net read: Bearish medium-term with a possible short-term bounce per historical analogs. Risk remains extreme.
Conditions like today, with the StratLab Breadth Index at 12.14 and a 5-session-old Bear Market, historically favored an average +0.5% 5-day return. However, the worst-case -4.86% drop and 1.2th percentile breadth warn that any bounce could be fleeting.