The StratLab Daily
No. 5 · Monday 23 Feb 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health just moved from Healthy Uptrend to Strong Bull.
NIFTY +0.55% to 25,713. A phase transition means the health engine's six-state read of market conditions changed today, not just the index price.
What happenedNIFTY +0.55% to 25,713. Market Health just moved from Healthy Uptrend to Strong Bull.
The tensionMarket Health is Strong Bull at Low risk, 58th percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
25,713.00
+0.55%
Market Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
session 1 · ↑ improving
FII Idx Fut
−129.1K
58.9th %ile
01 The crowd
Market Health just moved from Healthy Uptrend to Strong Bull.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 23 Feb · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A phase transition means the health engine's six-state read of market conditions changed today, not just the index price.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: Healthy Uptrend → Strong Bull · MHI 61.7 → 73.5
03 The catch
Market Health reads Strong Bull
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 23 Feb · percentiles vs 1,148 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
risk Low
Participation
56.2249
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
54.4
55th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
252 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — strong bull, Low risk — 252 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 252 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.10% | +0.10% | 58% | −5.93% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.42% | +0.69% | 63% | −6.33% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.71% | +0.80% | 64% | −6.05% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.26% | +1.44% | 68% | −9.35% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Strong Bull runs a median of 3 session(s) (max 22) — this is session 1. 21% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
MHI at 73.5 — a close back above 50 would end the 58th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
3.8% of Strong Bull exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−6.33%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Market Health just moved from Healthy Uptrend to Strong Bull.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 58th percentile · Low risk
- Conditions analog: +0.42% avg next 5 · 63% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Market Health just moved from Healthy Uptrend to Strong Bull. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
BULL