No. 2 · Wednesday 18 Feb 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Foreign money turned: cash selling.
FII flipped from +₹1,636 Cr to selling; DII also sold. Yet market health stays Strong Bull.
What happenedFII cash turned from +₹1,636 Cr inflow to selling.
The tensionFII selling vs. Strong Bull market health with StratLab Breadth Index 72.94.
Net readBullish
Nifty Close
25,819.35
+0.37%
Market Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
session 2 · ↑ improving
MHI
72.94
57th %ile
Risk
Low
confidence 90
FII Idx Fut
−134.6K
57.1th %ile
Walls
25.7–25.9K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 the crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 18 Feb · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Nifty closed at 25,819.35, up 0.37%. Institutions sold: FII cash flipped from +₹1,636 Cr, DII −₹238 Cr, FII futures −134,594 (57th pctile).
02 The turn
02 the turn
What this means: Foreign money turned: same-day turn in cash and futures direction. FII index futures −134,594 (57th pctile of the year).
03 The catch
03 the catch
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 18 Feb · percentiles vs 1,145 sessions
What this means: Market Health is Strong Bull (Improving, Low Risk). StratLab Breadth Index 72.94 (56.9th pctile, confidence 90%). Phase run 2 days.
Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
risk Low
Participation
49.5984
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
67.0
77th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 days like today
Conditions like today historically favored a 5-day average return of 0.42% (worst −6.33%) across 251 matches.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 251 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.10%
+0.11%
59%
−5.93%
Next 5 sessions
+0.42%
+0.69%
63%
−6.33%
Next 10 sessions
+0.71%
+0.82%
64%
−6.05%
Next 20 sessions
+1.26%
+1.44%
68%
−9.35%
Conditions favor a positive 5-day return of 0.42% on average.
Strong Bull, improving trend.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
5-day return > 0.42%
Confirms analog average; bullish follow-through.
5-day return turns negative
Divergence from analog; monitor flows.
5-day return falls below −6.33%
Worst-case analog level; structural caution.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
StratLab Breadth Index 72.94 (56.9th pctile)
Strong Bull phase, improving trend, low risk
5-day analog average +0.42% across 251 matches
Lines up bearish
FII cash selling after +₹1,636 Cr inflow
FII index futures −134,594 (57th pctile)
Worst-case 5-day analog −6.33%
Net read: Bullish but reliant on flow stabilization.
Market health strong, yet institutional selling warrants attention. Historical analogs favor a 0.42% 5-day gain, but worst-case is −6.33%.